by Ralph Colucci
26 August 2011
What constitutes a key race? Noble Nashua Stakes – (Belmont Version) – 19 June 2011
Noble Nashua, aptly named as he traced back to perhaps the greatest sire of all time Phalaris on both sides (5x6), was by Nashua out of the Vaguely Noble mare Noble Lady herself out of the Citation mare Good Folks who herself was out of the Count Fleet mare Mother In Law. New York ran a race in his name at Aqueduct and Belmont this year and has run races in his name previously at Saratoga (not sure about this year) however this piece refers to the race run at Belmont June 19th.
On June 29th I was playing Belmont when I noticed a NY bred with multiple wins running in an N1X/OC for no tag. The conditions were written in a way that allowed him to run. I bet him pretty good and watched the race. Coming into the stretch he looked like an easy winner until the jockey went to the whip. It was almost as if he was showing the jockey contempt as he hung on the out side. As soon as the rider put the whip away he cruised to an easy victory under a hand ride.
The race was run in what I call “Secretariat Fractions”, in honor of Secretariats machine like victory in the 1973 Belmont of 6 consecutive 24 second quarters, a record that stand to this day and is unlikely to be broken on a true dirt track as track surfaces are evolving, of 24 48 1:12 1:36 however the final time of 1:42 and change was respectable. The way he won in hand so easily on 10 days rest told me that this horse was razor sharp and likely to come right back & win. After not drawing in at least four times I know of, he finally had a chance to run on Sunday and paid over $11.00. If you can, watch the replay to see the closest race you can have that isn’t a dead heat.
A little research lead me to watch the Noble Nashua Stakes Race he ran in 10 days earlier and the trip he had was as if all the other riders were conspiring to keep him off the board. Coming into the stretch, he tried to come up the rail. Immediately the leader shut him off. Slevin swung out to split the leaders and was again shut off as they came together. Slevin then tried to go around only to be again shut off by the eventual winner Smokin Hero, who was all over the track the entire race, at which point the rider eased Slevin to take 4th money which explained the start 10 days later in which I bet him based on the trouble line.
Interestingly, out of that June 19th race containing 6 horses, Most Happy Fella was selected by yours truly when he won at Sar August 11th after wide “sandwiched” race there on July 29th where he gutted it out to get third, Spa City Fever couldn’t handle the slop next out at Sar in a Stake where he was eased but still picked up a cheque for about $3,400 but Mine Over Matter did handle it a bit and took third money of around $8,500. Johannesburg Smile scratched when it was forecasted to be taken off the turf and ran a nice race on the grass chasing old campaigner Jimmy Simms instead and Naughty New Yorker trailed most of the way next out in a bizarre sprint Stake (The J Morrissey) where Ibboyee closed about 10 lengths in the final 1/2f to get up in the last jump. That was to be Naughty New Yorker’s last race and Smokin Hero has yet to race again until today. Most Happy Fella came back to win this week returning (we thought) a very generous $7.20 in a 5 horse field. Today, Ibboyee contests Smokin Hero in the Easy N Dirty in the 4th Race at SAR whilst our dear Slevin takes on a load of fringe Stakes runners in an N3X/OC $75k carrying a $75k tag as he doesn’t fit the allowance conditions. It is a move up in class but since claiming him for $50k at the end of last year Dutrow has won 3 of 6 with him and today he gets the chance to go around two turns.
* Phalaris: 24 Starts: 16 - 2 – 1
Won: Champion Stakes, Cambridgeshire Handicap, and Duke of York Stakes, Princess of Wales Stakes, Richmond Stakes and Rous Memorial Stakes. 2° St. Leger
Leading sire in Great Britain and Ireland (1925, 1928) Leading broodmare sire in Great Britain & Ireland (1937, 1941, 1942). In the last century, the male line of Phalaris dominates world racing like no other, represented by the world's greatest sire lines: Northern Dancer (Nijinsky II, Sadler’s Wells etc.), Raise a Native, Nasrullah (Bold Ruler, Secretariat etc.), Buckpasser, and many others.
Friday August 26th – Early Version
Saratoga (in order of preference)
Saratoga Race 8
4) Slevin
Saratoga Race 4
3) Ibboyee
4) Smokin Hero
After a summer holiday in Canandaigua Smokin Hero finally hits the track again. If he needs the race Ibboyee will run him down.
Saratoga Race 5
8) Show Time
Expect Show Time to get the lead no matter what the fractions and the cutback to 5 ½ should allow Domiguez to hold him together to the wire. Other horses to consider: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Saratoga Race 6
9) Smart Farming
With the Turf a bit tiring and JR sticking with the horse as Smart Farming takes the plunge to $25k we expect to get up in time to get his picture taken. Other horses to consider: 4,5,6
Saratoga Race 7
5) Silver Meeting
In Filly version of Race 5, Silver Meeting ran great in the slop (Silver Deputy could handle the slop) but should move way up on the lawn. Other horses to consider: 2, 8
Saratoga Race 10
9) Sotique
In a very tough race where we expect trip to be a major factor we like Sotique but are wary as a Mdn allowance winner at Saratoga by Hennesey out of a Meadowlake mare who cost $220k is in for a $35k tag? Other horses to consider: 1, 3, 4.
Good luck trying to handicap the Bernard Baruch. Much like the man, if you know who is going to win BEFORE you invest your money, you can be a star. They used to name races after those guys. Now they arrest them for insider trading.
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