Thoroughbred Horse racing - Saratoga Picks 26AUG11

by Ralph Colucci
26 August 2011

What constitutes a key race? Noble Nashua Stakes – (Belmont Version) – 19 June 2011

Noble Nashua, aptly named as he traced back to perhaps the greatest sire of all time Phalaris on both sides (5x6), was by Nashua out of the Vaguely Noble mare Noble Lady herself out of the Citation mare Good Folks who herself was out of the Count Fleet mare Mother In Law. New York ran a race in his name at Aqueduct and Belmont this year and has run races in his name previously at Saratoga (not sure about this year) however this piece refers to the race run at Belmont June 19th.

On June 29th I was playing Belmont when I noticed a NY bred with multiple wins running in an N1X/OC for no tag. The conditions were written in a way that allowed him to run. I bet him pretty good and watched the race. Coming into the stretch he looked like an easy winner until the jockey went to the whip. It was almost as if he was showing the jockey contempt as he hung on the out side. As soon as the rider put the whip away he cruised to an easy victory under a hand ride.

The race was run in what I call “Secretariat Fractions”, in honor of Secretariats machine like victory in the 1973 Belmont of 6 consecutive 24 second quarters, a record that stand to this day and is unlikely to be broken on a true dirt track as track surfaces are evolving, of 24 48 1:12 1:36 however the final time of 1:42 and change was respectable. The way he won in hand so easily on 10 days rest told me that this horse was razor sharp and likely to come right back & win. After not drawing in at least four times I know of, he finally had a chance to run on Sunday and paid over $11.00. If you can, watch the replay to see the closest race you can have that isn’t a dead heat.

A little research lead me to watch the Noble Nashua Stakes Race he ran in 10 days earlier and the trip he had was as if all the other riders were conspiring to keep him off the board. Coming into the stretch, he tried to come up the rail. Immediately the leader shut him off. Slevin swung out to split the leaders and was again shut off as they came together. Slevin then tried to go around only to be again shut off by the eventual winner Smokin Hero, who was all over the track the entire race, at which point the rider eased Slevin to take 4th money which explained the start 10 days later in which I bet him based on the trouble line.

Interestingly, out of that June 19th race containing 6 horses, Most Happy Fella was selected by yours truly when he won at Sar August 11th after wide “sandwiched” race there on July 29th where he gutted it out to get third, Spa City Fever couldn’t handle the slop next out at Sar in a Stake where he was eased but still picked up a cheque for about $3,400 but Mine Over Matter did handle it a bit and took third money of around $8,500. Johannesburg Smile scratched when it was forecasted to be taken off the turf and ran a nice race on the grass chasing old campaigner Jimmy Simms instead and Naughty New Yorker trailed most of the way next out in a bizarre sprint Stake (The J Morrissey) where Ibboyee closed about 10 lengths in the final 1/2f to get up in the last jump. That was to be Naughty New Yorker’s last race and Smokin Hero has yet to race again until today. Most Happy Fella came back to win this week returning (we thought) a very generous $7.20 in a 5 horse field. Today, Ibboyee contests Smokin Hero in the Easy N Dirty in the 4th Race at SAR whilst our dear Slevin takes on a load of fringe Stakes runners in an N3X/OC $75k carrying a $75k tag as he doesn’t fit the allowance conditions. It is a move up in class but since claiming him for $50k at the end of last year Dutrow has won 3 of 6 with him and today he gets the chance to go around two turns.

* Phalaris: 24 Starts: 16 - 2 – 1
Won: Champion Stakes, Cambridgeshire Handicap, and Duke of York Stakes, Princess of Wales Stakes, Richmond Stakes and Rous Memorial Stakes. 2° St. Leger

Leading sire in Great Britain and Ireland (1925, 1928) Leading broodmare sire in Great Britain & Ireland (1937, 1941, 1942). In the last century, the male line of Phalaris dominates world racing like no other, represented by the world's greatest sire lines: Northern Dancer (Nijinsky II, Sadler’s Wells etc.), Raise a Native, Nasrullah (Bold Ruler, Secretariat etc.), Buckpasser, and many others.

Friday August 26th – Early Version

Saratoga (in order of preference)

Saratoga Race 8

4) Slevin


Saratoga Race 4

3) Ibboyee
4) Smokin Hero

After a summer holiday in Canandaigua Smokin Hero finally hits the track again. If he needs the race Ibboyee will run him down.

Saratoga Race 5

8) Show Time

Expect Show Time to get the lead no matter what the fractions and the cutback to 5 ½ should allow Domiguez to hold him together to the wire. Other horses to consider: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Saratoga Race 6

9) Smart Farming

With the Turf a bit tiring and JR sticking with the horse as Smart Farming takes the plunge to $25k we expect to get up in time to get his picture taken. Other horses to consider: 4,5,6

Saratoga Race 7

5) Silver Meeting

In Filly version of Race 5, Silver Meeting ran great in the slop (Silver Deputy could handle the slop) but should move way up on the lawn. Other horses to consider: 2, 8

Saratoga Race 10

9) Sotique

In a very tough race where we expect trip to be a major factor we like Sotique but are wary as a Mdn allowance winner at Saratoga by Hennesey out of a Meadowlake mare who cost $220k is in for a $35k tag? Other horses to consider: 1, 3, 4.

Good luck trying to handicap the Bernard Baruch. Much like the man, if you know who is going to win BEFORE you invest your money, you can be a star. They used to name races after those guys. Now they arrest them for insider trading.

TODAY's Saratoga, Del Mar and Woodbine free picks

Another look at today's thoroughbred race card by guest handicapper Ralph Colucci, who did very well with yesterday's picks!

Thoroughbred Blog – Sunday August 21st

We did well in yesterday’s Stakes. At Calder, we picked (and bet) the triactor in the 7 ½ f Filly Stake and were scratched in the Colt Race. At Monmouth, we predicted (and cashed ) on Iselin winner Where’s Sterling who paid $8,20. He will probably go next in The Jockey Club Gold Cup to prep for the Breeders Cup but I would prefer to see him try to Sharpen his speed in the Kelso if indeed he is Breeders Cup bound.

At Woodbine, Niigon’s Touch won for us in the Eternal Search. At De Mar, we were out ridden in the Oaks as our choice Neried lost the race going past the stands the first time when Talamo strangled her back to third when she clearly wanted the lead. Summer Soire stayed right with the pacesetter and went the half in 47 and the last 5f in 59 & change working with a six length lead. At Delaware, Hah Ha Tonka was right there on the rail for 5f in 56 & 4 but had no finish and at all. At Saratoga, Inglorious simply did not run a step. Don’t know if it was conditioning or she simply couldn’t handle the footing but on her game she kills the field in 2:03 & change.

In the other races at Saratoga we had a $150 Exacta in the 8th, Truine led to the head of the stretch in the 9th at 24-1, Van Tassel swept 8 wide on the turn in the second and was eased, Marine Officer went 9 wide and paid $4.90 to place without getting close to the winner and El Pradino paid $4.30 to place after weaving his way through the stretch to miss by a quarter length.. Tell Grant was scratched while Hear the Footsteps got buried on the fence in the last.

At Woodbine, Pearl Bay paid $5.10 to show, Seaside Retreat paid $3.90 to place after going 8 wide, With our choice scratched, Stars to Shine won and Perfect Shirl was third with no excuses. At Del Mar, Castaway sat too far off a 46 second half and paid $4.80 to place with do much to do. Don’t like much much today.

Saratoga August 21st 2011

Selections made for Fast & Firm – If possible T-storms materialize; will mention the play for that.

Saratoga – Race 2

These 2yo 7f Maiden races are always pretty tough at this and this one is no different. We like 3) Klondike Kate and 5) Street Savy out of the first time starters and expect more from 2) Spare Change on a dry track.

Saratoga – Race 4

Both 5) Winter Memories and 3 Trac N Jam carry 3 race win streaks into this Gr2 however we like 4) Wyomia more than a little as the only filly to have contended for a Gr1 win in The Ashland and fresh off a troubled 3rd in a Gr3 in Virginia

Saratoga – Race 5

Maidens 3 & up going 11f on the grass so distance becomes a big factor. 9) Cease, by Breeders Cup Mile winner War Chant out of Busanda Stakes winner Limit by Cox’s Ridge may be able to get the trip but will likely be favored. 8) Easy Reach has been going longer over the jumps and did just miss last time over the flats at 8 1/2f. 2) Rivendell, with a sire line out of The Lord of the Rings (Aragorn was 2nd in Breeders Cup Mile), has Alleged on the bottom and they can usually run all day while 6) Depreciable is by versatile Smart Strike out of a Nureyev mare but might find it too far.

Saratoga – Race 6

2YO going 5 ½ on the grass, 1) Sweet Cat just missed in the slop 1st out when race was switched to Main Track but is bound too be heavily bet. 6) Chessrate, a modest $6k yearling is by Tom Fool Stakes winner Exchange rate, himself a son of Danzig, out of a Dynaformer mare who was 4 for 10 earning over $100k.

Saratoga – Race 10

Maiden 2YO NY Bred colts going 8 1/2f on the grass, 3) Strike Accord looks interesting in a likely wide open affair.



Woodbine August 21st 2011

Woodbine – Race 2

4) Oban has run and worked well but may be over bet.

Woodbine – Race 6

2) Moonlit Beauty comes of another layoff and only need run back to her Race in the Zadracartra last year to win. She flattened out in this year’s edition but if Le Blanc has gotten her right she could win and pay big.

Woodbine – Race 8

5) Musketier is an honest sort who is always close and has won alternate races before. Edgar travels north with George Strawbridge’s 3) Smart Bid who is actually dropping in class after being close all summer. 2) Grassy was a game second to our choice last time and should be right there again.




Del Mar August 21st 2011

Del Mar – Race 3

4) Mildly Offensive could be a very good sprinter and takes on another Graded race today. Will bet if price is right.

Good Luck

Saratoga August 11th 2011 Handicapping

Courtesy of my friend and fellow horseplayer Ralph Colucci, here's a look at this afternoon's Saratoga races:

SAR 08/11

1st
1) Well Fashioned
2) Lonesome Nun
3) Farah T Salute

Lonesome Nun will be odds on & hard to beat but you gotta try

2nd
1) Most Happy Fella
2) Cinder Cone
3) Lindsey's Buck

Tough claimer with every horse betable but I like the inside trio

3rd
1) Henny's Hurricane
2) Sharp Tongue Lady
3) Side By Side

An even tougher claimer ($100k), Henny's Hurricane is 5 for 11 and I like horses who like to win!!!

4th
1) Law Enforcement
2) Hillswick
3) Radiohead

Radiohead should kill this field coming off G3 beten 1 1/4 for everything but I don't like him running for $50k and we will see if he can pass the vet? Law Enforcement is one of two horses to win at SAR, has JR and can win with his best race. He is 6yo now and came up short in his tightener at 6 1/2f but comes back to 6f at 6yo and may be his last win here. Hillswick has best current dirt form and is only other horse to win at SAR (winning at SAR is more important than most people think)

5th - Pick 6 all on the firm turf - A dream for me!!
1) Lady Gold
2) Bourbonstreetgirl
3) Bye Love You

The SAR Turf Training Track must have been like concrete 07/29 because I have been sucked in by fast works that day a few times already. Lady Gold had nothing but trouble 1st time out & still beat almost half the field coming home in 1:12 2/5 over a 14 variant (adjusted time 1:09:3). Bourbon Street Girl has the breeding & I like her working 5f 07/29 & 08/03 (I like 2nd work better though slower - see above). Bye Love You ran well in slop 1st out here to be 2nd behind runaway winner 07/29 but don't know about the distance.

6th
1) Cassanova Giant
2) Research report
3) Rumbletown

Cassanova Giant finally hits the turf but for a tag, at 3 (Beware - I am a sucker for Giant's Causeway's get) has JR, and nothing else with current form looks any good. Research Report has turf on the bottom and is also on the grass for the first time and doesn't look too terrible. Rumbletown just missed at this class & distance In May & you get Sognare (1st Lasix) for free.

7th
1) Dontbeshy I'll Buy
2) Sunlight Sonata
3) Rosa Salvaje

Don't Be Shy I'll Buy is 2 for 2 at 5 1/2f on turf, been spitting bullets and Edgar can still ride. Sunlight Sonata is cutting back 2nd off layoff & will be tough to catch. Rosa Salvaje has crafy Solis aboard and can motor on the grass as well.

8th
1) Freud's Honour
2) Darrin's Dream
3) Hessonite

Freud's Honour has done nothing but improve winning an open company stake last time at 9f for $88k, has JR and will be hard to beat. Darrin's Dream did just that earlier this year but may not get 8f. Hessonite is coming of a 3rd in late June in a Gr 3 & has Domiguez.

9th
1) Chanttoomuch
2) Speightcity
3) Ventura Bar

Chant Too Much is by War Chant, has been working well, only cost $25k, so running him for $75k makes sense. If claimed, owner makes close to $75k if he wins. Speightcity cost $65k, been working long and slow, could get burried on the rail first out but does have JR. Ventura Bar has hit the board on the grass at Ellis Park but question distance.

10th
1) Leadwithyourchin
2) Cockram Rock
3) Fastus Cactus

Lead With Your Chin could give Edgar his 2nd win on the card as he has won off the shelf in NY previously. JR is on Cockram Rock who was perfect here last year (2/2) but seems to have lost a step this year but maybe just needed an extra race at 4. If the turf is really firm Fastus Cactus may get too far in front to catch but I doubt it.



Best wishes to all!


Joe