Colucci's Calls: Saratoga Review

Thoroughbred Blog 27 August 2011

by Ralph Colucci

We have been writing a lot about Slevin lately and that key race, The Noble Nashua Stakes – (Belmont Version) – 19 June 2011. Yesterday, Smokin Hero finally ran back in the 4th, The Easy N Dirty in the 4th Race at SAR whilst our dear Slevin took on what appeared to be a load of fringe Stakes runners in an N3X/OC $75k carrying a $75k tag as he didn’t fit the allowance conditions.

Smokin Hero ran very well to be third in the minor stake, driving into the lead on the inside off the turn but clearly needed the race as he was a bit empty in the stretch coming home for the 7f in about 1:22:4 on a track that was about 2 seconds slow for the sprints and a little slower for the middle distance races.

Slevin on the other hand turned in another superb effort in the 8th Race at SAR, his last for Richard Dutrow as Gary Contessa claimed him for $75k (he didn’t fit the condition so was in for the $75k OC tag). Going around the far turn, Slevin was closing on To Honor and Serve however when he got to within about a quarter of a length to To Honor and Serve, To Honor and Serve kicked into high gear to win by 8 lengths whilst Slevin hung tough to beat the rest of the field in a very respectable 1:49:4 on a track that had to be over two seconds slow around two turns..

Slevin turned out to be a very nice claim for Dutrow for $50k last October, banking about $115k in purses and $25k on the claim for a total of $140k gross however he may have thrown the baby out with the bathwater as Slevin can run on anything and still has from 15 to 27 months of racing in him before he turns 8YO. With only 25 lifetime starts the best indeed may be yet to come for new trainer Gary Contessa and this son of Belong to Me, at one time the toast of NY sires that actually drew mares from Kentucky to New York in his heyday, out of a Silver Deputy mare (hence his ability to run on anything including the Aqueduct Inner Dirt in winter).

If Contessa runs Slevin in 25 NY bred Stakes over the next 2 1/3 years, earnings of a million dollars are not out of the question once the NY slot machine money starts to roll in. you have to love the way this horse competes, getting up by a whisker in the slop last time, bounced around like a pinball in the Noble Nashua and still holding fourth. But the real story in this race was To Honor and Serve. Is Bill Mott losing his edge or his nerve? He is not having a typical 30+ % meet like he usually does at Saratoga.

Off since The Florida Derby at the beginning of April, To Honor and Serve obviously needed the Amsterdam. He came home for 9f yesterday in 1:48:3 on a track that had to be over two seconds slow around two turns. Coil, the M/L second choice for today’s $1mm Travers is coming off a win in the Gr1 9f Haskell in 1:48:1 where he was still running pretty green. How fast was the track at Monmouth on Haskell Day? Fast enough for Force Freeze, a sprinter of unknown ability, to go 6f in 1:07:3 at $16.50-1. Fast enough that the slowest 6f in a sprint, including claimers, starters & 1st level allowance was 1:09 & change while most were 1:08 & change. Fast enough that I think every single winner won in their fastest time ever whether on dirt or turf. Definitely a Zero-variant Day.

M/L favourite Stay Thirsty is coming of a victory in the Jim Dandy here at SAR July 30th in 1:48:3. How fast was the track that day? The DRF lists the variant as 06 (it rated Coil’s Haskell a 05, how, I’ll never understand) that saw a 2YO Giant’s Causeway colt break his Maiden first out at 6f in 1:10:1, $20k claimers going 5 1/2 f in 1:04 & change, F&M claimers going 81/2 f in 1:42 & change. Certainly a faster track than yesterday. We think Mott made a very poor decision. To Honor and Serve certainly deserved to run in the Travers which, had he done so, would have given Dutrow a winning send-off for Slevin, while To Honor and Serve would have likely gone off as one of the favorites, finished in the top 3 with a tremendous shot at winning $600k instead of the meager $34,200 he picked out of Slevin’s pocket yesterday. Congrats to Contessa to stepping up to the plate and dropping $75k on Slevin and shame on Mott denying To Honor and Serve the chance at the honor of winning the mid-summer Derby.

Saturday Challenge - $24 versus $24

This first challenge will be open to only myself and our guest handicapper Ralph Colucci, whose Challenge picks I will be posting later today. In future weeks we will open up the Saturday Challenge to the public, and you can try to win the Challenge by posting your own suggested $8 tickets in the Comments section below.


Here are my three $8 tickets for tomorrow, Saturday August 27, 2011:




Mohawk 27AUG11 Race 4 Pick 4

7, 2, 5, 1 (6) / 8, 1, 5, 9, 7 (10) / 8 / 3, 5 (2)

40 bets x .20 = $8



Mohawk 27AUG11 Race 9 Pick 4

9, 6, 7, 5 (4) / 6, 5, 1, 3, 8 (2) / 6 / 4, 6 (3)

40 bets x .20 = $8








Woodbine 27AUG11 Race 7 Pick 4

6, 5, 1, 2 (4) / 3, 2, 11, 4, 10 (8) / 7 / 7, 9 (8)

40 bets x .20 = $8


So there are my picks for our inaugural Saturday Challenge; let's see what Ralph comes up with!!!

OKAY, here are Ralph's Picks:

Selections

Woodbine Race 4 – $0.20 Pick Four

Race Four - Woodbine

1) Mr. Online
2) Prospective
4) The Bear Vow
8) Henny One

Race Five - Woodbine

7) Pulpation
9) English Sunrise

Race Six - Woodbine

1) Full of Wisdom
1A) Not too Tacky
2) Namaimo
3) Marcellino
5) Go West G T Go
6) Charlie Bull

Race Seven - Woodbine

6) Dreamy Moonlite





Saratoga Race 2 – $1.00 Pick Four

Race Two - Saratoga

1) Our Entourage
1A) Never On Time
2) Awaited
3) Fire On Ice
5) Penn’s Grant

Race Three - Saratoga

6) Coach Royale

Race Four - Saratoga

9) Indy Scent

Race Five - Saratoga

3) Yellow Boat
6) Trophy Wife


Saratoga Race 9 – $1.00 Pick Four

Race Nine – Saratoga

2) Jealous Girl
1A) Moon Buzz
1) Maple Forest
3) AZ Warrior
7) Precious Soul

Race Ten - Saratoga

6) Tar Heel Mom
7) Sassy Image

Race Eleven – Saratoga

7) Uncle Mo

Race Twelve - Saratoga

1) Bowman’s Causeway

Thoroughbred Horse racing - Saratoga Picks 26AUG11

by Ralph Colucci
26 August 2011

What constitutes a key race? Noble Nashua Stakes – (Belmont Version) – 19 June 2011

Noble Nashua, aptly named as he traced back to perhaps the greatest sire of all time Phalaris on both sides (5x6), was by Nashua out of the Vaguely Noble mare Noble Lady herself out of the Citation mare Good Folks who herself was out of the Count Fleet mare Mother In Law. New York ran a race in his name at Aqueduct and Belmont this year and has run races in his name previously at Saratoga (not sure about this year) however this piece refers to the race run at Belmont June 19th.

On June 29th I was playing Belmont when I noticed a NY bred with multiple wins running in an N1X/OC for no tag. The conditions were written in a way that allowed him to run. I bet him pretty good and watched the race. Coming into the stretch he looked like an easy winner until the jockey went to the whip. It was almost as if he was showing the jockey contempt as he hung on the out side. As soon as the rider put the whip away he cruised to an easy victory under a hand ride.

The race was run in what I call “Secretariat Fractions”, in honor of Secretariats machine like victory in the 1973 Belmont of 6 consecutive 24 second quarters, a record that stand to this day and is unlikely to be broken on a true dirt track as track surfaces are evolving, of 24 48 1:12 1:36 however the final time of 1:42 and change was respectable. The way he won in hand so easily on 10 days rest told me that this horse was razor sharp and likely to come right back & win. After not drawing in at least four times I know of, he finally had a chance to run on Sunday and paid over $11.00. If you can, watch the replay to see the closest race you can have that isn’t a dead heat.

A little research lead me to watch the Noble Nashua Stakes Race he ran in 10 days earlier and the trip he had was as if all the other riders were conspiring to keep him off the board. Coming into the stretch, he tried to come up the rail. Immediately the leader shut him off. Slevin swung out to split the leaders and was again shut off as they came together. Slevin then tried to go around only to be again shut off by the eventual winner Smokin Hero, who was all over the track the entire race, at which point the rider eased Slevin to take 4th money which explained the start 10 days later in which I bet him based on the trouble line.

Interestingly, out of that June 19th race containing 6 horses, Most Happy Fella was selected by yours truly when he won at Sar August 11th after wide “sandwiched” race there on July 29th where he gutted it out to get third, Spa City Fever couldn’t handle the slop next out at Sar in a Stake where he was eased but still picked up a cheque for about $3,400 but Mine Over Matter did handle it a bit and took third money of around $8,500. Johannesburg Smile scratched when it was forecasted to be taken off the turf and ran a nice race on the grass chasing old campaigner Jimmy Simms instead and Naughty New Yorker trailed most of the way next out in a bizarre sprint Stake (The J Morrissey) where Ibboyee closed about 10 lengths in the final 1/2f to get up in the last jump. That was to be Naughty New Yorker’s last race and Smokin Hero has yet to race again until today. Most Happy Fella came back to win this week returning (we thought) a very generous $7.20 in a 5 horse field. Today, Ibboyee contests Smokin Hero in the Easy N Dirty in the 4th Race at SAR whilst our dear Slevin takes on a load of fringe Stakes runners in an N3X/OC $75k carrying a $75k tag as he doesn’t fit the allowance conditions. It is a move up in class but since claiming him for $50k at the end of last year Dutrow has won 3 of 6 with him and today he gets the chance to go around two turns.

* Phalaris: 24 Starts: 16 - 2 – 1
Won: Champion Stakes, Cambridgeshire Handicap, and Duke of York Stakes, Princess of Wales Stakes, Richmond Stakes and Rous Memorial Stakes. 2° St. Leger

Leading sire in Great Britain and Ireland (1925, 1928) Leading broodmare sire in Great Britain & Ireland (1937, 1941, 1942). In the last century, the male line of Phalaris dominates world racing like no other, represented by the world's greatest sire lines: Northern Dancer (Nijinsky II, Sadler’s Wells etc.), Raise a Native, Nasrullah (Bold Ruler, Secretariat etc.), Buckpasser, and many others.

Friday August 26th – Early Version

Saratoga (in order of preference)

Saratoga Race 8

4) Slevin


Saratoga Race 4

3) Ibboyee
4) Smokin Hero

After a summer holiday in Canandaigua Smokin Hero finally hits the track again. If he needs the race Ibboyee will run him down.

Saratoga Race 5

8) Show Time

Expect Show Time to get the lead no matter what the fractions and the cutback to 5 ½ should allow Domiguez to hold him together to the wire. Other horses to consider: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Saratoga Race 6

9) Smart Farming

With the Turf a bit tiring and JR sticking with the horse as Smart Farming takes the plunge to $25k we expect to get up in time to get his picture taken. Other horses to consider: 4,5,6

Saratoga Race 7

5) Silver Meeting

In Filly version of Race 5, Silver Meeting ran great in the slop (Silver Deputy could handle the slop) but should move way up on the lawn. Other horses to consider: 2, 8

Saratoga Race 10

9) Sotique

In a very tough race where we expect trip to be a major factor we like Sotique but are wary as a Mdn allowance winner at Saratoga by Hennesey out of a Meadowlake mare who cost $220k is in for a $35k tag? Other horses to consider: 1, 3, 4.

Good luck trying to handicap the Bernard Baruch. Much like the man, if you know who is going to win BEFORE you invest your money, you can be a star. They used to name races after those guys. Now they arrest them for insider trading.