TODAY's Thoroughbred Racing August 20 - Colucci's Calls

Guest handicapper Ralph Colucci's look at thoroughbred cards today

Thoroughbred Blog – Saturday August 20th

Saratoga

Alabama Day. Since the Breeders Cup, former very important Grade 1 races have lost their importance but the Alabama and the Travers continue to attract the best.

Saratoga – Race 2

These 2yo turf races have been pretty rough this meetso we are going to go with 8) Van Tassel, a $120k KEESEP purchase with Rahy on the bottom and JR on its back for hot trainer Motion.

Saratoga – Race 5

No doubt Joseph Allen hoped Marine Officer would be any kind when he sent him to France. He did run well in a rich Maiden Allowance at Longchamp as a 2YO but has turned up at Saratoga as a $20k claimer. We will give him his last few and look for a price since you don’t see many Kingmambo/Sadler’s Wells crosses running for $20k

Saratoga – Race 6

Again we look to JR to do our handicapping for us with the 3) El Padrino (Pulpit/Giant’s Causeway) however the other Velasquez on 11) Rightfully So (AP Indy/Coronado’s Quest) may be the better bet at 7f with better odds to boot

Saratoga – Race 7

Tell Grant got claimed for 1/6th of his stud fee last out on a race moved to the main track and didn’t run that bad at CD in his only grass start. Might be a price

Saratoga – Race 8

Two interesting colts bracket this field. 1) Animal Spirits (Arch/Mr. Prospector) has been working well and could wire the field while 10) Fantastic Song (Lemon Drop Kid/Fantastic Light) has been working slow and may try to come from off the pace.

Saratoga – Race 9

3) Triune is undefeated on turf in non-stakes races since her two early starts as a 2YO and hasn’t been embarrassed in the added money grass events by any means. 7) Mega Dream tries her turf breeding on the grass for the first time and has Prado. Both are big odds in the M/L.

Saratoga – Race 10 – Gr 1 Alabama Stakes – 10f for 3YO Fillies

Used to be top fillies had gone 12f by now in the CCA Oaks, the 10f, but it is now one of far too many Gr1 races at 9f. Inglorious beat Canada’s best 3YO colts in fine style at 10f in the Queen’s Plate and if the track is dry might prevail here at good odds. All the 9f Gr1 & Gr2 winners look good and it will be interesting to see if the can handle the extra furlong

Saratoga – Race 11

1) Hear the Footsteps looks ready to win and round out the $500k late Pick 4

Woodbine

Woodbine – Race 2

2) Pearl Bay had trouble last time and does the turf to dirt switch. 1A) Holiday at Betty’s and 5) Blue Heart have both worked well but may be overbet.

Woodbine – Race 4

You don’t often see winners of $1.145mm in for a tag but 1) Seaside Retreat isfor $80k after a 3 year hiatus and a tightener. 8) Woodbourne was 8 for 17 until claimed from Mark Casse & winless since but is one of the last Danzig’s running and can hit the board.

Woodbine – Race 6

2) Honimiere tries dirt for first time for Attfield and certainly works out on it fine. 1) Perfect Shirl, Roger’s other horse in the race has a 1st and a 3rd in her two runs at WO on the poly but has won $200k of her $240k bankroll on grass. 6) Stars to Shine has yet to prove she belongs in stake company but has had 7 starts now so we shall see.

Woodbine – Race 8

7) Niigon’s Touch is a head away from undefeated on dirt and the 10f Wonder Where must have helped from a conditioning standpoint. 5) Bear it’s Time may not be able to catch her this time.


Calder

Calder – Race 9

Fillies going 7 1/2f on grass. 4) Callmethesqueeze likes the grass which she is 2 for 2 on and is lucky she wasn’t claimed 2nd start, as is 6) Nasty Rumor and 2) Battle of Love. Nasty rumor may be the best of the lot.

Calder – Race 12

Colts going 7 1/2f on grass. 7) Silver Cloud (Rahy/Silver Deputy) is perfect at the distance and should become a stakes winner today. Will have to run outside Florida to command a stud fee one day, one to watch.

Del Mar

Del Mar – Race 3

6) Private Affair is a long way from Peru but should be a good price.

Del Mar – Race 6

7) Castaway been working like a good thing (Street Sense/Storm Cat) but may be too short a price to bet

Del Mar – Race 8

We like 11) Halo Dolly if she can draw in from the Alsos. If not, Up & comer 9) Nereid can come right back but can expect stiff competition from 6) Celestial Kitten, and 7) Cambina.

Monmouth

Monmouth – Race 3

We like 4) Mine Own to win going round two turns at first asking at a nice price.

Monmouth – Race 5

2) Glass Art gets the rail, like the breeding (Hennesey/Lasting Approval) and second start of year after rough first outing.

Monmouth – Race 9

Don’t know what 5) Visionaria was running against in Italy but do like her being a nose away from undefeated and coming right back to win going longer.

Monmouth – Race 10 P Iselin

Another classy old race now just another 9f Graded stake. 3) Where’s Sterling is four now and could be trying to find out if he is Breeders Cup material being off since May.

Delaware

Delaware – Race 8

6) Ha Ha Tonka likes to run short, fast and win. 4 of 5 this year, the 4YO may do just that at a nice price.

Good Luck to All

BETFAIR is one roller coaster thrill ride - Check it out!!!

Rookie Trials and Tribulations at BetFair.com

I must admit it was with both excitement and fear / trepidation that I opened my first BetFair.com account a few days ago. Some highlights of my wild ride during the past half week:

- On Day One I managed to bet $6CDN four times on the same horse as I thought my order hadn't filled but in reality each time I placed it there was a fill.

Tip: After seeing your order come up on the screen and Confirming it, click Place Bet again to bring up a blank screen, then immediately click My Bets to see your active positions.

- Got a partial fill on a stink bid of 350-1. Even though only 66 cents of my order filled, it meant the race went live with me having 66 cents at stake, a chance to win $200 (the payout on the .66 wager), and being locked in at odds of 350-1 even though the horse was going off at 60-1.


- Learned this last night, and I believe it will be key if I am to succeed as a Betfair market maker / trader. I had been starting with a high odds long position (betting on a horse to Win, or a "Back" bet), and then looking to Lay it off at lower odds. Then something dawned on me... if I start with a short position ("Lay" a horse, or bet against it winning), then I can cover the position by going long at either Betfair or HPI (HorseplayerInteractive.com, Canada's top horse race wagering website). If I go long first, the only option to cover the position is at Betfair, as you cannot Lay a horse through the parimutuel system offered at HPI and similar Tote Board sites.

- Got a partial fill ($1.16 at 23-1) yesterday and the horse won, made $25 on that race.

- Secured a couple of long positions at high odds that could have easily been covered but was greedy, went live with both of them and neither one, so I learned a good lesson there. If you can cover your position and lock in a profit, why gamble?

- The very next race I was ready to cover, but the market moved fast and the horse's odds drifted up, so going long first worked against me. I was caught with a long position at Post Time again...

- The next race I had my first successful arbitrage, whereby I took a long position at generous odds and then covered it off (in a panic, I could have got a better price 30 seconds later but the previous two races had me on edge). I was guaranteed a 37 cent profit if my horse won and $1.49 profit if he lost. Funny thing, this was a Clocker's Special that I liked and would have been better to leave uncovered, as he romped to victory at about 5 to 1, but the 37 cent profit was even more satisfying as it was lockerd in as my minimum profit even before the race began.

That's it for my first few days, though I am sure there will be more stories to post in coming weeks.

If you are a horseplayer or sports betting enthusiast in Canada, the UK or Asia (most countries except the United States), I suggest that you JOIN BetFair.com and get great CASHBACK Bonuses!