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Rookie Trials and Tribulations at BetFair.com

I must admit it was with both excitement and fear / trepidation that I opened my first BetFair.com account a few days ago. Some highlights of my wild ride during the past half week:

- On Day One I managed to bet $6CDN four times on the same horse as I thought my order hadn't filled but in reality each time I placed it there was a fill.

Tip: After seeing your order come up on the screen and Confirming it, click Place Bet again to bring up a blank screen, then immediately click My Bets to see your active positions.

- Got a partial fill on a stink bid of 350-1. Even though only 66 cents of my order filled, it meant the race went live with me having 66 cents at stake, a chance to win $200 (the payout on the .66 wager), and being locked in at odds of 350-1 even though the horse was going off at 60-1.


- Learned this last night, and I believe it will be key if I am to succeed as a Betfair market maker / trader. I had been starting with a high odds long position (betting on a horse to Win, or a "Back" bet), and then looking to Lay it off at lower odds. Then something dawned on me... if I start with a short position ("Lay" a horse, or bet against it winning), then I can cover the position by going long at either Betfair or HPI (HorseplayerInteractive.com, Canada's top horse race wagering website). If I go long first, the only option to cover the position is at Betfair, as you cannot Lay a horse through the parimutuel system offered at HPI and similar Tote Board sites.

- Got a partial fill ($1.16 at 23-1) yesterday and the horse won, made $25 on that race.

- Secured a couple of long positions at high odds that could have easily been covered but was greedy, went live with both of them and neither one, so I learned a good lesson there. If you can cover your position and lock in a profit, why gamble?

- The very next race I was ready to cover, but the market moved fast and the horse's odds drifted up, so going long first worked against me. I was caught with a long position at Post Time again...

- The next race I had my first successful arbitrage, whereby I took a long position at generous odds and then covered it off (in a panic, I could have got a better price 30 seconds later but the previous two races had me on edge). I was guaranteed a 37 cent profit if my horse won and $1.49 profit if he lost. Funny thing, this was a Clocker's Special that I liked and would have been better to leave uncovered, as he romped to victory at about 5 to 1, but the 37 cent profit was even more satisfying as it was lockerd in as my minimum profit even before the race began.

That's it for my first few days, though I am sure there will be more stories to post in coming weeks.

If you are a horseplayer or sports betting enthusiast in Canada, the UK or Asia (most countries except the United States), I suggest that you JOIN BetFair.com and get great CASHBACK Bonuses!

Gambling; Investing at the track in the 21st Century

Lately I've been writing down a lot of numbers on scraps of paper, searching for patterns in jackpot sized Superfecta and Pick 4 winners. What I am looking for are predictably repeatable patterns that pay more than they should. For example, if a pattern that comes in once every one hundred races pays on average three hundred times the bet, on paper that would appear to be a worthwhile wager. The trick is having the patience to make that same bet over and over again, knowing that 99% of the time you will not even cash, and avoiding emotional bets (what, Mark McDonald going off at 20-1!!!), so that your stake / bankroll can be maintained to play the "system" bets.

To me, most deep fields (eg. 6 or 7 serious contenders in a 9 or 10 horse race) are entirely unpredictable, as the results will be heavily weighted by trip factors, rather than form and class. This means that it may be more lucrative to hold a variety of combinations of faves, contenders and longshots, with an overweighted position in tickets not usually held by most fans / bettors.

Re-Arranging YOUR Horses

Here is a triactor wager illustration that will help you understand this concept, and how you can utilize it in your own wagering. Take a typical Triactor Wheel ticket you may buy:

Fave with 3rd Fave with All
3rd with Fave with All

1 w 3 w All

3 w 1 with All

If you really like these two horses, consder adding:

1 w All w 3

All with 1 w 3

The latter two triactor tickets may come in less often than the first two, yet will often pay many times more.

Flipping YOUR triactor triangle:

Here's another example, again with 1 representing the favourite, 2 the 2nd fave, 3 the 3rd fave etc.

Typical ticket:

1,2 w 1,2,3,4 w 123456 = $24

Now flip this on its head:

123456 w 1234 w 12 = $24

Again, the flipped ticket will come in less often than the first one, however it will cash many larger tickets, relative to the standard version of that bet. Having the 1st and 2nd faves in the 3rd position means that some other horse MUST get into 1st or 2nd, which is how most races do finish, so the flipped ticket may cash more often than you imagine.

My research is inspired by a champion horse owner (whose name I didn't catch but if any reader knows whom I speak of, please post the story in comments section below!) who got his start in horse racing owenership by cashing exotic bets, then utilizing his winnings to invest in and grow a stakes-winning stable.

So far I have been able to identify some promising patterns, yet have not had sufficient cash or discipline to decide on a specific approach and stick with it for an extended period. Here's the rub: While larger boxes / tickets will obviously cash more frequently, the bigger layout means the urgency of cashing and the danger of slumps increases. The other approach would be to invest a small sum regularly in a ticket that should pay very well when it cashes, and then increase the daily wager size only after a bigger stake has been gained through the success of the initial plan.

Clear as mud? Stay tuned, as I will post updates when I try to turn these theories into a part-time job, adding extra income through cashing decent-sized jackpots at the racetrack. It may be a pipe-dream, yet to me it seems there are signposts that indicate an astute bettor can beat both the takeout and the herd, and the way to do it is to stray from the herd slightly, covering realistic angles that are not tipped off through the morning line.

Hit 'em where they ain't!!