Gambling versus entertainment, drawing the line

The past few months featured some job uncertainty for me, and I left one place of employment to begin a new opportunity at another. During the stress of this transition, I theorized (am really good at self-delusion...) that turning handicapping into a part-time job could be a benefit to myself and my family. Well, after a couple months of researching and trying different things, I have come to the conclusion that I may be too emotional to do this properly. Somebody needs to be a machine to play a system, because a good one will always be counter-intuitive, and I'm likely not that guy.

I will keep studying standardbred breeding and racing with a passion, however I am taking some time off from actually betting on the races. Before my kids were born I went several times a month, and then after that usually only a few times per year. As my kids got older over the past decade, I started going to the track with my dad more often, and all of that will continue, love going to the races with family.

The thing that has changed is the web. Before, you either had to go to the track or to a Champions, whereas with the Internet, you can play every day from home, and that can be a time and money gobbler.

Gotta take a break...

$419,000+ Pick 6 Carryover at Aqueduct TODAY FRI12NOV

In recent weeks I have been comparing various handicapping tournaments with carryover pools, and here's yet another example of how each major carryover is a no entry fee tourney for handicappers. I thought the Aqueduct pool would be won yesterday when it was over $100,000, and though I normally bet Standardbreds, these types of money-added opportunities are there for everyone to enjoy!

Now that the Aqueduct Pick 6 Carryover is $419,465, the ticket today (Friday November 12th) will have a handle approaching if not exceeding a million dollars. Here are 2 places you can play along:

Horseplayer Interactive Canadian horse racing betting website

Equibase horse racing info wagering research


Many Happy Returns!


Peace 2 All,

Joe Trainor
Publisher / Editor
Harness Horses Info

Top Standardbred Sires of 2010

There are still some races to come, yet it looks like the field is narrowing significantly. Here are the contenders for Harness Horse Info 2010 Stallion of the Year honours:

Pacing

Rocknroll Hanover
Western Hanover
Bettors Delight
Art Major
Dragon Again
Western Ideal


Trotting

Credit Winner
Muscles Yankee
Angus Hall
Yankee Glide
Conway Hall
Cantab Hall
Andover Hall
Windsongs Legacy


As Credit Winner is on top for two and three year olds and overall, it will be difficult knock him off his perch. Muscles Yankee is right there with him, while Conway Hall, Yankee Glide, Andover Hall and Cantab Hall each had spectacular seasons.

On the pacing side the remaining races may actually make a difference, as a case can be made for each of Western Hanover, Bettors Delight, and Rocknroll Hanover. Art Major may not take the top prize in 2010, yet his two and three year olds are ultra-competitive, positioning him well for next year's big money races.

Gambling; Investing at the track in the 21st Century

Lately I've been writing down a lot of numbers on scraps of paper, searching for patterns in jackpot sized Superfecta and Pick 4 winners. What I am looking for are predictably repeatable patterns that pay more than they should. For example, if a pattern that comes in once every one hundred races pays on average three hundred times the bet, on paper that would appear to be a worthwhile wager. The trick is having the patience to make that same bet over and over again, knowing that 99% of the time you will not even cash, and avoiding emotional bets (what, Mark McDonald going off at 20-1!!!), so that your stake / bankroll can be maintained to play the "system" bets.

To me, most deep fields (eg. 6 or 7 serious contenders in a 9 or 10 horse race) are entirely unpredictable, as the results will be heavily weighted by trip factors, rather than form and class. This means that it may be more lucrative to hold a variety of combinations of faves, contenders and longshots, with an overweighted position in tickets not usually held by most fans / bettors.

Re-Arranging YOUR Horses

Here is a triactor wager illustration that will help you understand this concept, and how you can utilize it in your own wagering. Take a typical Triactor Wheel ticket you may buy:

Fave with 3rd Fave with All
3rd with Fave with All

1 w 3 w All

3 w 1 with All

If you really like these two horses, consder adding:

1 w All w 3

All with 1 w 3

The latter two triactor tickets may come in less often than the first two, yet will often pay many times more.

Flipping YOUR triactor triangle:

Here's another example, again with 1 representing the favourite, 2 the 2nd fave, 3 the 3rd fave etc.

Typical ticket:

1,2 w 1,2,3,4 w 123456 = $24

Now flip this on its head:

123456 w 1234 w 12 = $24

Again, the flipped ticket will come in less often than the first one, however it will cash many larger tickets, relative to the standard version of that bet. Having the 1st and 2nd faves in the 3rd position means that some other horse MUST get into 1st or 2nd, which is how most races do finish, so the flipped ticket may cash more often than you imagine.

My research is inspired by a champion horse owner (whose name I didn't catch but if any reader knows whom I speak of, please post the story in comments section below!) who got his start in horse racing owenership by cashing exotic bets, then utilizing his winnings to invest in and grow a stakes-winning stable.

So far I have been able to identify some promising patterns, yet have not had sufficient cash or discipline to decide on a specific approach and stick with it for an extended period. Here's the rub: While larger boxes / tickets will obviously cash more frequently, the bigger layout means the urgency of cashing and the danger of slumps increases. The other approach would be to invest a small sum regularly in a ticket that should pay very well when it cashes, and then increase the daily wager size only after a bigger stake has been gained through the success of the initial plan.

Clear as mud? Stay tuned, as I will post updates when I try to turn these theories into a part-time job, adding extra income through cashing decent-sized jackpots at the racetrack. It may be a pipe-dream, yet to me it seems there are signposts that indicate an astute bettor can beat both the takeout and the herd, and the way to do it is to stray from the herd slightly, covering realistic angles that are not tipped off through the morning line.

Hit 'em where they ain't!!

Breeders Crown 2010; Winning Sires prove up Standardbred stallion lines

I am certain that ananlysis of place and show finishers would expand the stalion pool and deepen understanding of current trends, however taking a quick look at the winners shows some powerful lines continuing on and some newer branches emerging. To fully understand which sire lines top broodmare owners are leaning to, evaluate the success of two and three year olds in various sires stakes programs and in Breeders Crown events, and you will know what buyers are looking for, in terms of pedigree and top line prowess, at standardbred yearling sales like the upcoming 2010 Harrisburg Standardbred Yearling sale, November 8th to 13th.

$250,000 Breeders Crown Mare Trot - Jailhouse Jesse

Daughter Buck I St. Pat continued her dominance and making her an incredibly valuable broodmare. A Donerail son, Jailhouse Jesse is a grandson of the game-changing sire Valley Victory.


$600,000 Breeders Crown Open Trot - Enjoy Lavec

The seven year old son Enough Talk proved that his record setting miles in 2009 were no fluke. Like Chip Chip Hooray and Dream Vacation, Enjoy Lavec is a son of the formidable outcross trotting stallion (Speedster line via Arnie Almahurst and Arndon) Pine Chip.


$600,000 Breeders Crown Two-Year-Old Filly Trot - Conway Hall

I was in a minority position picking Martiniontherocks to win this, however her Canadian connections and her solid Garland Lobell top line helped bolster the impression she was still improving and could come up big.


$500,000 Breeders Crown Three-Year-Old Colt Trot - Revenue

If he can continue his winning ways, Break The Bank K may have an opportunity to become a valued outcross sire, being a son of European trotting stallion Revenue, the only non-Hambletonian line sire to have succeeded at the highest levels of trotting in recent decades (pacing is 100% Hambletonian line). Revenue wrapped up his duties at Perretti in NJ and is off to Sweden for 2011.


$600,000 Breeders Crown Two-Year-Old Filly Pace - Bettors Delight

See You At Peelers is just another jewel in the crown of Bettors Delight, the Cams Card Shark son who verifies nightly that Cam Fella line colts are still on the prowl and the Shark-oriented variety is indeed a bettor's delight.


$600,000 Breeders Crown Two-Year-Old Colt Trot - Yankee Glide

Manofmanymissions drew into the final because of a late scratch, and did his sire Yankee Glide proud. A super-successful son of Valley Victory, Yankee Glide is perhaps succeeded only by another Valley Victory son, Muscles Yankee.


$600,000 Breeders Crown Two-Year-Old Colt Pace - Western Ideal

Big Jim showed us that Rocknroll Hanover's sire Western Ideal can still bring it himself, and that Western Hanover line colts remain the overall dominant force in two and three year old stakes racing.









$500,000 Breeders Crown Three-Year-Old Filly Trot - Credit Winner

Impressive Kemp upset the favourites and improved her position in the breeding shed. As a daughter of Credit Winner, she will be in demand as a Breeders Crown winning scion of the Super Bowl - American Winner line. This line is alive and well in the form of Crazed, Herecomesherbie and the impressive Chocolatier.


$300,000 Breeders Crown Mare Pace - Camluck

Dreamfair Eternal has dominated Mohawk Raceway and her prowess continued Stateside. A daughter of the Cam Fella son and inestimable foundation sire Camluck, she will be prized as a broodmare when it's time to hang up the sulky.



$500,000 Breeders Crown Three-Year-Old Filly Pace - Rocknroll Hanover

Put On A Show is no fluke and continues to be one of the fastest most reliable fillies ever, illustrating again that the Rocknroll Hanover (Western Ideal, out of goddess mare Rich N Elegant, by Direct Scooter) trunk of Western Hanover's multiplicity of quality descendants is the strongest wood.







$500,000 Breeders Crown Open Pace - Western Hanover

Rather than face Rock N Roll Heaven in the Three year Old Pace, Won The West's connections decided to pit him against the older horses and the ambit paid off, with the Western Hanover son tripping the wire in 1.49 flat. From the second-last crop of Western Hanover, Won The West may race some more yet will likely find a place at stud himself sometime soon. Western Hanover is the most dominant son of the Most Happy Fella line stallion No Nukes.





$500,000 Breeders Crown Three-Year-Old Colt Pace - Rocknroll Hanover

Rock N Roll Heaven lived up to form and continued his winning ways in the prestigious Breeders Crown final for 3 year old colt pacers, keeping the Western Hanover-Western Ideal - Rocknroll Hanover sire line in the limelight.

The racing champion also has the top 3 pacing sires up close, Western Hanover on top and Artsplace and Cam Fella via dam Artistic Vision.






Many happy returns,


Joe Trainor
HarnessHorses.info

2010 Breeders Crown 3YO Colt Pace eliminations

Video Breeder Crown 3YO Colts and Geldings Pace 2010 elimination 1:

One More Laugh wins first Breeders Crown elim in 1:50




Video Breeder Crown 3YO Colts and Geldings Pace 2010 elimination 2:

Rocknroll Heaven takes charge in 2nd elimination, winning in 1.49.1!




This sets up an interesting duel in the final: Outcross sire McArdle's son One More Laugh against the Western Hanover grandson / Rocknroll Hanover son Rocknroll Heaven, with the latter likely to be about an even money favourite.

Breeders Crown Open Pace, Open Trot and Mare Trot PP

The fastest older pacers and trotters will be part of the $6 million Breeders Crown 12-race final program at Mohegan at Pocono Downs on Saturday Oct. 9 with a special early post time of 5:00 p.m.


Open Pace:

$500,000 Breeders Crown Open Pace

Breeders Crown Open Pace draw, with listed drivers and trainers:

1. Shark Gesture, George Brennan, Larry Remmen
2. Foiled Again, Yannick Gingras, Ron Burke
3. Bettor Sweet, Brian Sears, Tom Cancelliere
4. Hypnotic Blue Chip, Jody Jamieson, Kevin McDermott
5. Won The West, David Miller, Ron Burke
6. Lisagain, Andy Miller, Erv Miller
7. Clear Vision, Ron Pierce, Richard “Nifty” Norman
8. Blueridge Western, Daniel Dube, Kevin McDermot



Open Trot:

The Breeders Crown $600,000 Open Trot, with assigned drivers:

1. Hot Shot Blue Chip, David Miller
2. Slave Dream, John Campbell
3. Neighsay Hanover, Tim Tetrick
4. Define The World, Paul Macdonell
5. Enough Talk, Ron Pierce
6. Lucky Jim, Andy Miller
7. Triumphant Caviar, Luc Ouellette
8. All Cantab Trevor Ritchie
9. Lanson, Mike Lachance


Mare Trot:

Breeders Crown $250,000 Mare Trot:

1. Windsong Soprano, Ron Pierce
2. Elusive Desire, John Campbell
3. Yursa Hanover Daniel Dube
4. Southwind Wasabi, Yannick Gingras
5. Autumn Escapade, David Miller
6. Jersey As; George Brennan
7. Buck I St Pat, Tim Tetrick