Colucci's Calls: Saratoga Review

Thoroughbred Blog 27 August 2011

by Ralph Colucci

We have been writing a lot about Slevin lately and that key race, The Noble Nashua Stakes – (Belmont Version) – 19 June 2011. Yesterday, Smokin Hero finally ran back in the 4th, The Easy N Dirty in the 4th Race at SAR whilst our dear Slevin took on what appeared to be a load of fringe Stakes runners in an N3X/OC $75k carrying a $75k tag as he didn’t fit the allowance conditions.

Smokin Hero ran very well to be third in the minor stake, driving into the lead on the inside off the turn but clearly needed the race as he was a bit empty in the stretch coming home for the 7f in about 1:22:4 on a track that was about 2 seconds slow for the sprints and a little slower for the middle distance races.

Slevin on the other hand turned in another superb effort in the 8th Race at SAR, his last for Richard Dutrow as Gary Contessa claimed him for $75k (he didn’t fit the condition so was in for the $75k OC tag). Going around the far turn, Slevin was closing on To Honor and Serve however when he got to within about a quarter of a length to To Honor and Serve, To Honor and Serve kicked into high gear to win by 8 lengths whilst Slevin hung tough to beat the rest of the field in a very respectable 1:49:4 on a track that had to be over two seconds slow around two turns..

Slevin turned out to be a very nice claim for Dutrow for $50k last October, banking about $115k in purses and $25k on the claim for a total of $140k gross however he may have thrown the baby out with the bathwater as Slevin can run on anything and still has from 15 to 27 months of racing in him before he turns 8YO. With only 25 lifetime starts the best indeed may be yet to come for new trainer Gary Contessa and this son of Belong to Me, at one time the toast of NY sires that actually drew mares from Kentucky to New York in his heyday, out of a Silver Deputy mare (hence his ability to run on anything including the Aqueduct Inner Dirt in winter).

If Contessa runs Slevin in 25 NY bred Stakes over the next 2 1/3 years, earnings of a million dollars are not out of the question once the NY slot machine money starts to roll in. you have to love the way this horse competes, getting up by a whisker in the slop last time, bounced around like a pinball in the Noble Nashua and still holding fourth. But the real story in this race was To Honor and Serve. Is Bill Mott losing his edge or his nerve? He is not having a typical 30+ % meet like he usually does at Saratoga.

Off since The Florida Derby at the beginning of April, To Honor and Serve obviously needed the Amsterdam. He came home for 9f yesterday in 1:48:3 on a track that had to be over two seconds slow around two turns. Coil, the M/L second choice for today’s $1mm Travers is coming off a win in the Gr1 9f Haskell in 1:48:1 where he was still running pretty green. How fast was the track at Monmouth on Haskell Day? Fast enough for Force Freeze, a sprinter of unknown ability, to go 6f in 1:07:3 at $16.50-1. Fast enough that the slowest 6f in a sprint, including claimers, starters & 1st level allowance was 1:09 & change while most were 1:08 & change. Fast enough that I think every single winner won in their fastest time ever whether on dirt or turf. Definitely a Zero-variant Day.

M/L favourite Stay Thirsty is coming of a victory in the Jim Dandy here at SAR July 30th in 1:48:3. How fast was the track that day? The DRF lists the variant as 06 (it rated Coil’s Haskell a 05, how, I’ll never understand) that saw a 2YO Giant’s Causeway colt break his Maiden first out at 6f in 1:10:1, $20k claimers going 5 1/2 f in 1:04 & change, F&M claimers going 81/2 f in 1:42 & change. Certainly a faster track than yesterday. We think Mott made a very poor decision. To Honor and Serve certainly deserved to run in the Travers which, had he done so, would have given Dutrow a winning send-off for Slevin, while To Honor and Serve would have likely gone off as one of the favorites, finished in the top 3 with a tremendous shot at winning $600k instead of the meager $34,200 he picked out of Slevin’s pocket yesterday. Congrats to Contessa to stepping up to the plate and dropping $75k on Slevin and shame on Mott denying To Honor and Serve the chance at the honor of winning the mid-summer Derby.

Saratoga August 11th 2011 Handicapping

Courtesy of my friend and fellow horseplayer Ralph Colucci, here's a look at this afternoon's Saratoga races:

SAR 08/11

1st
1) Well Fashioned
2) Lonesome Nun
3) Farah T Salute

Lonesome Nun will be odds on & hard to beat but you gotta try

2nd
1) Most Happy Fella
2) Cinder Cone
3) Lindsey's Buck

Tough claimer with every horse betable but I like the inside trio

3rd
1) Henny's Hurricane
2) Sharp Tongue Lady
3) Side By Side

An even tougher claimer ($100k), Henny's Hurricane is 5 for 11 and I like horses who like to win!!!

4th
1) Law Enforcement
2) Hillswick
3) Radiohead

Radiohead should kill this field coming off G3 beten 1 1/4 for everything but I don't like him running for $50k and we will see if he can pass the vet? Law Enforcement is one of two horses to win at SAR, has JR and can win with his best race. He is 6yo now and came up short in his tightener at 6 1/2f but comes back to 6f at 6yo and may be his last win here. Hillswick has best current dirt form and is only other horse to win at SAR (winning at SAR is more important than most people think)

5th - Pick 6 all on the firm turf - A dream for me!!
1) Lady Gold
2) Bourbonstreetgirl
3) Bye Love You

The SAR Turf Training Track must have been like concrete 07/29 because I have been sucked in by fast works that day a few times already. Lady Gold had nothing but trouble 1st time out & still beat almost half the field coming home in 1:12 2/5 over a 14 variant (adjusted time 1:09:3). Bourbon Street Girl has the breeding & I like her working 5f 07/29 & 08/03 (I like 2nd work better though slower - see above). Bye Love You ran well in slop 1st out here to be 2nd behind runaway winner 07/29 but don't know about the distance.

6th
1) Cassanova Giant
2) Research report
3) Rumbletown

Cassanova Giant finally hits the turf but for a tag, at 3 (Beware - I am a sucker for Giant's Causeway's get) has JR, and nothing else with current form looks any good. Research Report has turf on the bottom and is also on the grass for the first time and doesn't look too terrible. Rumbletown just missed at this class & distance In May & you get Sognare (1st Lasix) for free.

7th
1) Dontbeshy I'll Buy
2) Sunlight Sonata
3) Rosa Salvaje

Don't Be Shy I'll Buy is 2 for 2 at 5 1/2f on turf, been spitting bullets and Edgar can still ride. Sunlight Sonata is cutting back 2nd off layoff & will be tough to catch. Rosa Salvaje has crafy Solis aboard and can motor on the grass as well.

8th
1) Freud's Honour
2) Darrin's Dream
3) Hessonite

Freud's Honour has done nothing but improve winning an open company stake last time at 9f for $88k, has JR and will be hard to beat. Darrin's Dream did just that earlier this year but may not get 8f. Hessonite is coming of a 3rd in late June in a Gr 3 & has Domiguez.

9th
1) Chanttoomuch
2) Speightcity
3) Ventura Bar

Chant Too Much is by War Chant, has been working well, only cost $25k, so running him for $75k makes sense. If claimed, owner makes close to $75k if he wins. Speightcity cost $65k, been working long and slow, could get burried on the rail first out but does have JR. Ventura Bar has hit the board on the grass at Ellis Park but question distance.

10th
1) Leadwithyourchin
2) Cockram Rock
3) Fastus Cactus

Lead With Your Chin could give Edgar his 2nd win on the card as he has won off the shelf in NY previously. JR is on Cockram Rock who was perfect here last year (2/2) but seems to have lost a step this year but maybe just needed an extra race at 4. If the turf is really firm Fastus Cactus may get too far in front to catch but I doubt it.



Best wishes to all!


Joe